Research predicts 2029 small molecule oncology market leaders

Strong demand for small molecules as treatment for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in the eight major markets means that the small molecule treatment market for the disease is expected to reach over $15 billion by 2029. This represents approximately 40 percent of the total NSCLC market, stated GlobalData.

Sales for AstraZeneca’s Tagrisso are anticipated to exceed $7 billion and hold a 48 percent share of the market of small molecules in lung cancer treatment by 2029, according to data and analytics company GlobalData.

Tagrisso achieved landmark approval from the FDA in 2015, following the results of the Phase III AURA trial, GlobalData highlighted. This approval marked a significant advancement in treating metastatic EGFR T790M mutation-positive NSCLC.

As the current landscape for lung cancer therapeutics stands, 39 small molecules have been commercialised. Worldwide, there are 4,951 ongoing Phase III trials for 34 different small molecules. Additionally, 14 new small molecules for treating lung cancer are currently undergoing Phase III clinical trials, GlobalData noted.

Market projections – small molecule oncology treatments

“Tagrisso’s approval marked a paradigm shift in the treatment of lung cancer, especially in the early stages where tumour resection is possible but recurrence is common (Phase III ADAURA trial). In addition, the groundbreaking results of the Phase III FLAURA trial added a new standard to the first-line treatment of EGFR-mutated NSCLC. This ensures that a wider spectrum of patients can reap the benefits of targeted small-molecule medicines like Tagrisso,” Biswajit Podder, PhD, Oncology and Hematology Analyst at GlobalData commented.

Roche is expected to secure second position in the market, due to projected sales of over $2.5 billion and a market share of 17 percent by 2029, GlobalData predicted.

The research also forecast Amgen to achieve a projected sales value of over $1 billion and a market share of 7.3 percent by 2029.

Promising pipeline drugs for lung cancer

“In addition to the success of Tagrisso, the other promising pipeline drugs of AstraZeneca, particularly Orpathys, are contributing to the company’s small-molecule lung cancer treatment portfolio. It is anticipated to generate $361 million in sales for lung cancer treatment by 2029. Furthermore, Lynparza, another small molecule from AstraZeneca, is undergoing clinical trials for the treatment of lung cancer. However, Eisai and Merck’s new asset, Kisplyx/Lenvima, is another major small molecule in Phase III development for the treatment of NSCLC, with projected sales of $176 million by 2029,’’ Podder concluded.