Seasonal influenza vaccine market to be worth $6.5bn by 2028

The seasonal influenza vaccine market will increase from $4.6 billion in 2018 to $6.5 billion in 2028 across the eight major markets (US, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan and Brazil) at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7 percent, a recent report has said.

A transition from egg-based towards cell-based, recombinant and universal influenza vaccines to provide stronger protection against seasonal influenza infections will drive this growth over the next ten years, the report from GlobalData continues.

The seasonal influenza vaccine’s late-stage pipeline is weighted towards cell culture-based and recombinant influenza vaccines, the reports says, which will take a combined 38 percent share of the eight major markets and sales of $2.5 billion by 2028.

The launch of new, more expensive, but potentially more efficacious vaccines is the main driver of growth, the research finds, while low, stagnating vaccination rates – especially in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the UK and Japan – are major barriers.

Seasonal influenza vaccination rates also differ widely between the eight major markets, the report continues, for example 83 percent for children in Brazil and 2 percent in Germany. Due to small seasonal changes in Brazil, the influenza season can start before vaccination begins, thus this market may be particularly receptive to universal influenza vaccines promising protection against multiple strains over multiple influenza seasons.

GlobalData also interviewed Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) who stated that vaccine efficacy is one of the major unmet needs in the seasonal influenza market, alongside low vaccination rates.

The launch of next-generation, universal, cell-based and recombinant influenza vaccines will address this unmet need, while concurrently providing a platform to address environmental needs, such as vaccine hesitancy, the research company found.

“GlobalData’s primary research identified diverging opinions about the launch window and scope of universal influenza vaccines,” said Philipp Rosenbaum, PhD, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData. “While some experts expect universal influenza vaccines on the market within five years, others pointed out that clinical trials necessary to prove long-term influenza virus protection will take much longer.”