Harnessing the GLP-1R medicine wave

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Based on their rising popularity to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity, GlobalData has predicted that sales of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP-1R) drugs will increase fourfold to an estimated $142 billion by 2030.¹

Considering the 11 approved GLP-1R drugs “generated $37.2 billion” last year, two key players in the market, namely Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly and Company, are set to lead the market, the analytics company forecasts: “collectively capturing 94 percent of the total 2030 GLP-1R sales”.¹

Jasper Morley, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData noted that these products include Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Trulicity and Mounjaro^®. GlobalData also highlighted Amgen’s current Phase II candidate maridebart cafraglutide as a treatment for these conditions.¹

Moreover, their analysis expects that within the next seven years, the GLP-1R market will “expand to 35 approved products from 16 companies”.¹

Clinical data demonstrating long-term advantage of GLP-1R medicines

Recent data shared about tirzepatide (Zepbound® and Mounjaro) by Eli Lilly and Company revealed the promise of these drugs as long-term treatments for obesity and pre-diabetes.

During the Phase III SURMOUNT-1 study, the drug was administered in participants once per week via injection in either 5mg, 10mg or 15mg doses.

Notably “tirzepatide reduced the risk of developing type 2 diabetes by 94 percent and resulted in sustained weight loss over the three-year treatment period,” Dr Jeff Emmick, PhD, Senior Vice President, Product Development, Eli Lilly remarked on the study findings at the time of the announcement.

Potential of small molecule therapies for obesity and type 2 diabetes

Phase Ia trial findings reported in June, showed that a small molecule treatment lowered postprandial blood glucose levels “significantly”, according to the data. The participants were given a single dose of HDM1002 compared to placebo. The treatment was also shown to hold a “good safety and tolerability” profile.

Hangzhou Zhongmei HuaDong Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd stated that HDM1002’s mechanism of action means it can “potently activate the GLP-1 receptor, induce the production of cAMP, and exhibit strong effects in improving glucose tolerance, reducing blood sugar [and] promoting weight loss.”

Treating chronic kidney disease with GLP-1R drugs

In March, semaglutide was shown to have potential as the first GLP-1R drug option to treat type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD).

“We are very excited about the results from FLOW showing that semaglutide 1.0mg reduces the risk of kidney disease progression,” Martin Holst Lange, Executive Vice President for Development at Novo Nordisk stated.

Considering that “approximately 40 percent of people with type 2 diabetes have chronic kidney disease,” Lange stated, based on data from the Phase III FLOW trial.

Increasing production capacity for GLP-1R drugs

In May, Eli Lilly and Company announced a major investment of $5.3 billion in its manufacturing site in Lebanon, Indiana, US. The planned expansion will support an increase in production capacity of the GLP-1R drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro injections.

David Ricks, Eli Lilly’s Chair and CEO explained that the investment “tops the largest manufacturing investment in our company’s history”.

Eli Lilly shared that production of the medicines will commence at the Lebanon site towards the end of 2026. Once fully operational, the facility will house total of 900 employees.

In conclusion, with continued demand for GLP-1R drugs predicted through to the next decade, driven for instance, by 1 billion people estimated to be living with obesity by 2030,² the future outlook for this medicine market appears optimistic.

References

1. GLP-1R Market: A Two Horse Race, Says Globaldata. [Internet] GlobalData. 2024. [cited 2024Aug]. https://www.globaldata.com/media/pharma/glp-1r-market-two-horse-race-says-globaldata/
2. Milani I, Gaita C, Guarisco G. The Intricate Relationship Between Obesity, Type 2 Diabetes and Female Breast Cancer: A Retrospective Study Of 335 Women. Obesity Science & Practice. 2024; 10 (4)